Discovery

Ever since white settlers overwhelmed the native population, about the only way you could call Washington’s population diverse is by distinguishing between Germans and Scandinavians. Even though the state enjoys a rich mix of Asian, Native, and white Americans, the non-white numbers have long been relatively low. By 1890, whites represented 97 percent of Washington’s recorded populace, and that number remained static for decades.

Now that mix has started to change. The white (not Hispanic) portion of Washington’s population has dropped below 80 percent for the first time since the mid-19th century.

Annabel Kirschner, a professor in the Department of Community and Rural Sociology and an extension specialist, has posted a draft version of “Increasing Diversity in Washington State 2000-2008,” the latest in a continuing series of demographic analyses of Washington state, now named Washington Counts in the 21st Century (http://www.crs.wsu.edu/outreach/index.html).

The idea of the series, says Kirschner, is to give administrators, social service personnel, small business owners, and others a clearer view of what U.S. Census and other demographic information means for their county. Washington’s geographic diversity lends itself to great economic and social diversity, if not necessarily to ethnic diversity. Whitman is not Skagit is not Lewis County.

And none resemble King County. It’s rare, says Kirschner, that county trends mimic those of the state. King County, the big gorilla in the game because of its population and economic activity, skews all information for the state.

In 1980, whites represented 90.2 percent of Washington’s population. By 2008, that percentage had dropped to 76.2. Actual white population over that period actually increased by better than 25 percent. However, over that same period, Washington’s Hispanic population grew by nearly 200 percent.

Immigration, of course, was a major factor in the increased diversity. In 1980, 5.8 percent of Washingtonians were foreign-born. By 2007, that number was 12.3 percent. However, says Kirschner, better counting of people who have always been there also contributed.

This last number is from the American Community Survey, an ongoing survey by the U.S. Census Bureau of a small sample of the population. It is likely a conservative estimate, as undocumented immigrants are probably undercounted. The Census Bureau’s methodology is to target households, not people, says Kirschner.

According to Washington’s Office of Financial Management, immigration contributes most to the growth of Asian and Pacific Islander and Hispanic groups. In 2000, 67.2 of Washington’s Asian and 45.6 of its Hispanics were foreign-born.

An important factor leading to diversity, notes Kirschner, is the age structure of different groups. The median age of whites in Washington in 2000 was 37.9, of blacks, 29.7, American Indians 28.6, of Asian/Pacific Islanders 30.5 , and of Hispanics 22.7.

According to Kirschner, even if immigration to the United State were to stop and fertility rates for all populations were to fall below the rate necessary to replace the next generation, Washington would continue to grow more diverse—because of the age structures of the non-white populations.

In 2008, Hispanics became the majority in Franklin and Adams counties. In Okanogan County, Hispanic/Latinos represented over 275 percent of its population growth. They also make up more than 100 percent of population growth in Adams, Columbia, and Yakima counties. These seemingly impossible numbers make sense because the rest of the counties’ populations shrank.

Links

Increasing Diversity in Washington State, draft report (PDF): http://www.crs.wsu.edu/outreach/ark/Draft-wacts5-IncreasingDiversity.pdf

Annabel Kirschner’s web page: http://www.crs.wsu.edu/facstaff/kirschner/kirschner.html